Trump's promise of 'tremendous' trade deal with China still out of reach - USA TODAY

Michael Collins and John Fritze USA TODAY

Published 5:00 AM EST Dec 15, 2019

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump sent stock prices soaring in October when he announced the U.S. and China had reached a preliminary deal to help American farmers, turning down the temperature of a trade war raging since last year.

Two months later, after the president said Friday he is closer to signing that "Phase One" deal with China, market reaction was muted and the White House scrambled to explain what concessions the Chinese made in exchange for lower U.S. tariffs.

The ups and downs in the months-long talks over the initial deal underscore the challenges Trump faces as he now tries to broker a broader agreement to open China to American products, protect the intellectual property of U.S. companies and end a trade war that began in early 2018 with tariffs on Chinese solar cells and washing machines.

The outcome of the broader talks could have enormous consequences for the U.S. economy, Trump's reelection next year and the long-term economic ties between Washington and Beijing. China is already reshaping its economy to focus on other partners and to bolster domestic production, reducing its reliance on American markets.

After looking at the preliminary agreement, several experts said they believe the U.S. and China are no closer to realizing those goals.

"I’m not terribly optimistic that there is such a deal before the next presidency," said Peter Petri, a professor of international finance at Brandeis University. "The Chinese will be very reluctant to make such a deal over the next few months."

Tariffs dropped: Trump, China tout tentative 'Phase One' trade deal

'Limited,' Phase One deal

Trump described the "Phase One" agreement Friday as "tremendous" and "phenomenal" and vowed that "farmers are going to have to go out and buy much larger tractors, because it means a lot of business." But neither the White House nor the Chinese provided the text of the deal, which Trump officials acknowledged had not yet been signed. And there were scant details about Chinese concessions.

As part of the deal, Trump shelved plans to impose new tariffs on $160 billion of Chinese smartphones, electronics and other goods that had been set to take effect Sunday. He also cut the tariff to 7.5% from 15% on another $120 billion in Chinese goods.

Democrats pounced on the lack of detail while the Dow Jones industrial average, after a brief spike, hovered in flat territory for most of the day on Friday.

Market reaction: Stocks little changed after Trump and China reach partial trade deal

"He has sold out for a temporary and unreliable promise from China to purchase some soybeans," said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, an occasional supporter of Trump's China trade policy. "We’ve heard this song and dance from China before."

China will increase U.S. farm purchases by $32 billion over the next two years, officials said. The White House was less clear about what changes China will make to address concerns about protecting intellectual property of U.S. companies doing business there.

'Phase Two' will be harder

Finalizing a broader trade deal between the world's two largest economies has proven tough, with China demanding the U.S. remove some tariffs and Trump pushing Beijing to enact measures on intellectual property and the forced transfer of technology.

Trump, who as a New York real-estate developer built his brand in part around his ability to close a deal, remains adamant an agreement can be reached. The president said Friday he doesn't plan to begin talks on a Phase Two deal until after the 2020 election.

"This is just the beginning," said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which supports the deal and easing of tariffs. "The issues facing the U.S. and China are complex and multi-faceted. They are unlikely to all be resolved quickly."

For more than a year, the U.S. and China have been waging a bitter tit-for-tat trade battle amid accusations Beijing steals technology from U.S. companies and pressures them to hand over trade secrets in order to do business in China.

Trump has slapped tariffs on more than $360 billion in Chinese imports. China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110 billion worth of U.S. goods, including agriculture products, cars, auto parts, chemicals, whiskey, cigars, clothing and TVs.

Hopes for an end to the trade tensions rose in October when Trump announced the preliminary "Phase One" deal, indicating it was largely settled and needed only to be "papered out." But it became clear as the weeks went by the process was more complex and less had been agreed to than the president originally signaled.

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China wanted the tariffs lifted as soon as possible. Gao Feng, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, announced in early November that the two sides had agreed in principle to roll back tariffs, though he would not provide specifics.

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“As for how much of the tariffs should be removed, the two countries can negotiate based on the content of the Phase One deal," he said.

Trump quickly shot down that idea.

"They'd like to have a roll back," he told reporters the day after the Chinese Commerce Ministry's announcement. "I haven't agreed to anything.”

What's next?

Negotiations over the issue of intellectual property have been complicated by China's refusal to acknowledge its practice of forcing U.S. companies to hand over trade secrets, said Derek Scissors, a China expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

"It's hard to get a promise from them to stop doing something they deny ever doing," he said.

Help for farmers: Trump offers $16 billion in aid for farmers hurt by trade war with China

As the talks dragged on, Trump tried to tamp down expectations of a quick resolution for the initial agreement. Several experts expressed skepticism about the outcome of those talks Friday, and the chances for addressing the underlying issues with China.

"The fighters have retreated to their corners and may not return to the ring," said Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at The Wilson Center.

"The Trump administration is calling this 'Phase One' of a trade deal with China, but there is little reason to expect a phase two or three," he said. "The Chinese side has already won a respite from continual American threats and appears to have done so without offering any terms it wasn’t prepared to give in 2017."

Michael Collins and John Fritze cover the White House. Reach them on Twitter @mcollinsNEWS and @jfritze.

Contributing: David Jackson

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